The Run In
Mar 15th, 2009 | By KevB8ll | Category: Blues News, Kev's RamblingsWell here we go, on the final furlong, (well it was Cheltenham last week 
). I’ve been thinking about what might be needed more than who might do it.
Before I discuss it, I have to be honest. I made a statement on the forum in January that we wouldn’t go up based on a number of poor performances. Well I wasn’t anticipating both Wolves and Reading ALSO trying their best to stay in the league! Right with that out of the way, here we go.
The run in is interesting. Wolves first. They have 3 home games left against the Saints, QPR and Doncaster. I think they should pick up 7 points from those games.
They also have 4 away games. They are against Forest, us, Derby and Barnsley. Those are more tricky to judge. Forest and Barnsley are struggling for survival so may be fighting hard, Derby have appeared to have improved recently and we have too – although we do appear to be vulnerable at home sometimes. As a result I am going for 4 points from those four games.
That would give Wolves a total of 85 points.
What of Reading? Well they have two more games to play than us and Wolves, however of those games only 3 are at home.
Those are against Sheffield Utd, Barnsley and us. None of those games will be easy for them for different reasons, but I’m going to be generous and say they get 4 points.
Their away games are against Doncaster, Palace, Coventry, Blackpool, Derby and Norwich. As with Wolves, a number of those teams won’t be easy either. Again I’m going to be generous and say they’ll get 12. That will give them a total of 80 points. (I actually think they will get less than that, but we’ll leave it as that for now).
So what will we have to do to get promotion? Well 90 points is always a good target, however this year I believe less will be enough.
We are on 71 points at the moment, we’ll assume that we have to beat goal difference. So we will need 81-88 points to go up. That will mean between 10 and 17 points will be needed – around 5 wins.
Can we get that from our remaining games? Let’s look.
We have four home games against Norwich, Wolves, Plymouth and Preston. We have to fancy our chances against Norwich and Argyle. Let’s say we draw against Wolves and lose to Preston. That is 7 points.
We have three games away. They are against Charlton, Watford and Reading. Again I fancy our chances against Charlton and Watford, Reading is more difficult to judge. I’m going to say we’ll get 4 points – that will give us 82 points.
That could well be enough. Reading look like they have lost their belief, and could end up getting less points. Obviously they COULD pick up again – and therefore get a few more.
I think Wolves are now almost there and it’ll be between us and reading for 2nd place. The key games for the 3 teams are going to be against the teams at the bottom. The side that picks up the most points against those, will go up.
Well I started off by admitting that I thought we would definitely NOT go up in January, so where do I stand now? Well I now think we definitely MIGHT go up.
What do you think? Wolves and Reading fans, feel free to add your comments – as long as they are clean and respectful.
Kev
Good article Kev, a fair assesment of the teams at the top. Dare i say that you were even slightly too harsh on Blues. I’d maybe put us down for 14 points, not 11, which would leave us level with Wolves.
Nice one mate.
Cheers mate.
good article …………….. BUT i have said all season that blues and reading will go up automatically !!!!!!!!!!! leaving wolves to fail in the playoffs hahaha
Why do you think we will lose to Preston? They have won only 3 times away from home all season. Their position in the table is based entirely on their home form.
I would say that we should get 10 points at home 4 away. That would give us 85 which should easily be enough.
Have to keep one eye on Shefield Utd though.
Dunno Mike – I guess because it’s the Blues.
I still think that Cardiff are a big threat. I have just done the bbc predictor and have them to finish on 83 points and in second place. They have a series of winnable home games (Watford, Sheff Utd, Swansea, Derby are their next 4 games, all at home, Burnley and Ipswich are their other two home games remaining) and away they have to play Palace, Preston, Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday. Not easy I know, but they are quite formidable at home and can definetly pick up some points on their travels
I agree Cardiff are a threat but the intensity of their schedule may cost them. No team is a pushover in this division and I would not rely on them to win all their games in hand AND sustain the form to overhaul the top three. I just think that teams will kick lumps out of each other and any team that can emerge relatively unscathed in terms of points dropped will deserve the ultimate prize. We have to target the five games that are not Wolves and Reading and look for 13 points from those five. If we are serious about it that is what has to be aimed for. The two games against Reading and Wolves; we have to at least hold our own. The match against Wolves is crucial. It will be different to the FA Cup game – we will be a lot stronger and a lot wiser. Hopefully the ref will provide the perfect through ball for us!
Sorry to want to come in and crash your promotion party.
we just might be on one of those runs that fade away but not having lost away since october, and having recently wiped the floor with Birmingham(anyone of your fans who was there will know how 1 sided it was) and crushed everyones late favorites Cardiff we may just have a litle say in who finishes 1st and second.
regards to fellow football lovers ANSTON BLADE.
Thanks for your comment. I disagree that you wiped the floor with us. The only reason your scored the two goals you did was because the ref forgot his glasses.
Other than that you didn’t look that impressive in front of goal – mind you we weren’t much better. A draw would definitely been a fair result.
However that’s gone now. Sheff Utd have strung together some good results recently, and are dead certs in the play-offs. I think your run may have started too late for the auto places – but I think you could well win the play off final.
Hi
That was impressive to us, so our form all season must have been shocking.
How come your support is so poor (in numbers not passion coz we all have that) for a team in second place?
Hi Keiran. Sheff Utd have really come good the 2nd half of the season, and I must admit you do still have a chance of nicking an automatic spot. I’m sure you will understand if I hope you don’t, but wish you well in the play-offs. Unless we screw up 2nd place of course – in which case I withdraw that too
Yeah our support numberswise is poor this season. There are several reasons IMO, the board late last season early this season weren’t particularly shall we say – customer friendly, it is has annoyed people. As a result there are people who are boycotting. Secondly we haven’t played well through the season bar the odd decent performance. Thirdly, there have been a number of high profile business going against the wall in the midlands and people are struggling.
Kev
Hi Kev,
on bbc radio sheffield every weekday night isfootie phone in ‘Football Heaven’ you can listen via web or revue back after the program. Not much happening on it this week due to international break. All season long fans calling for Blackwells head, kevin Mc cabe (chairman) to resign and our club is so family friendly and customer friendly, season ticket prices droped for next season Under 13 £10 for a season ticket, yes a tenner, so you have my sympathy if your clubs is going through that stage. Wednesday (we call them wendies or pigs)have been like that for years. May just be comming out the right side of it though.
Football Heaven is a good listen EVEN WHEN THER IS A STUPID FAN FROM YOUR OWN SIDE ON. Barnsley fans are funny without even realising it.
it serves six teams Blades, wendies,barnsley, fairytale conference club Doncaster,Miracle workers Rotherham(where would they be without 17point deducted) and playoff hopefulls Chesterfield. Any show like that in your area?
P.S. if you do loose to Wolves and we win our next 2 games we go second and the crunch comes a week friday away at reading.
Blades 2 Ipswich 0
Game totally dominated by us, second half was a stroll in the park.
Next at home Barnsley Tuesday night, will we go second? will our South Yorks rivals spoil our run in party?