Here is an article from Bazza where he looks at the relegation fight.

LET’S DO THE MATHS!

Well it finally happened and the final bullet was pumped into the twitching corpse that represents Portsmouth FC’s season. They now prop up the Premier League with a miserly ten points almost halving their previous total of 19. Few can doubt that they are definitely planning for life in the Championship despite the fact that they have 27 points still to play for but it would be the biggest escape since ‘The Great Escape’ and there would definitely be an epic film made of that on the level of ‘Ben Hur,’ ‘Gandhi,’ ‘Gone with the Wind’ and ‘Titanic’ all rolled into one were it to occur. That’s Pompey falling into the abyss but who will join them? I’ve considered the five teams above Pompey as I believe that Sunderland and Bolton will probably survive comfortably from the position they find themselves. These teams as of now are Hull, Burnley, Wolves, West Ham and Wigan. If we consider each team in turn with the fixture list they each have left we should get a clearer idea about who will slide through the dreaded trap door.

Portsmouth

Yes I know we have all already doomed them but they have to play Hull, Wigan and Wolves in their remaining nine games and this could have a severe impact on the threatened teams scrapping for survival. I am going to consider their total to start with ignoring their nine point deduction as one of my mates maintains that Pompey could have escaped had it not been for their administration. I disagree and working out their points tally without the deduction should demonstrate this point. Their fixtures are as follows with my predictions as to how many points they will gather:

Hull City

Hull also have three rivals during their run in but sadly two of those encounters are away and so they are up against it in those ‘six pointers.’ Iain Dowie has just placed his rump in the Hull City hot seat now that Phil Brown has been given the grand order of the golden wellie. Will it make a difference? I very much doubt it I’m afraid.

Burnley

Burnley had a change of manager forced on them when Owen Coyle sailed off in the only life boat leaving his successor a pretty daunting and probably hopeless task.  Their key games against relegation threatened rivals Hull and Wigan are both away and given that Burnley have been dire on their travels all season I don’t see their fortunes changing any time soon.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolves have a tough run in with key games against West Ham and Pompey. Nevertheless, of late they have shown a bit of fight and resilience and were unlucky not to get a point at home against the Champions, Man Utd. Their win at Burnley may just be their life saver and should give them confidence for the final push. Their home form will be key to their survival.

West Ham United

Their form at Upton Park is again crucial but I think they are a far better side than their position would suggest. I suspect they will have enough about them at the end of the day.

Wigan Athletic

I thought that of all the teams in the bottom six that have played us this season Wigan have performed by far the poorest. Nevertheless, they have the most points on the board at this juncture and are in the happy position of having three of their rivals paying them a visit in the last weeks of the season. I expect them to survive therefore.

Clearly by my calculations, the teams that are in the bottom three now are the ones going down. I am bound to say that they were my tips for the drop at the start of the season especially after Pompey’s disastrous start of eight consecutive losses. What this little exercise does suggest is that Portsmouth would be relegated regardless of the docked points and Avram ‘Happy’ Grant’s contention that it’s unfair that they have been treated in such a way and that a team’s destiny should be decided on the pitch not off it; a flawed argument but I understand what he means. However, it would make little difference in my view. What is also clear is that my predicted results probably bear no relation to what will actually happen and there will no doubt be shock results this way and that before the final curtain falls but let us consider one more way of looking at this for a moment and that is with a simple equation:

This assumes that each team will perform with the consistency or lack of it that they have done this season. For each team this would give the following rounded up to the nearest point:

These two methods are within a point except for Burnley whom I think will fare worse than by simple arithmetic. Let’s say for the sake of argument that the bottom three are granted another two points and the other three are deducted two each to account for error it can be seen that the same three teams still go down and Wolves survive by a point. If I am right and I am more than prepared to be completely way off, relegation will not be a close run thing and a team may survive with one of the lowest hauls ever. We’ll see in the end of course but this is my view – what does everyone else think? Look forward to hearing your opinions and please remember this is a bit of fun; I am not setting out to offend anyone. Like all Blues fans I have experienced the pain of relegation too many times to wish it on a fellow football fan.

May the best teams survive!

Bazza

KRO SOTV