It’s that time of the year when we all get our calculators out and start studying league tables and fixture lists trying to work out what we need to do to go up or stay up. With a top two finish looking very unlikely now the focus is on what we need to secure a playoff spot. I’m pretty indifferent about whether we finish 4th, 5th or 6th so I’m trying to work out how many points will be needed for a top six finish.
With seven games to go (Eight for us) there are only six points covering eight teams fighting for the remaining three spots. That is assuming Reading or West Ham don’t suffer a dramatic loss of form. None of those eight teams however could be considered to be in form as they have all dropped points in recent weeks. On Tuesday night Hull, Middlesbrough and Leicester all had disappointing results. With a lot of games between the playoff challengers to come you wouldn’t put money on any of the teams to get more than half the points available. If we allow a generous average of twelve points for each of the sides that would give finishing values of seventy-four for fourth and seventy-two to get sixth. With our good goal difference a total of seventy-three should be fine for a comfortable top sixth finish. I’ve added a poll for others to give their opinions on this target.
So if seventy-three is the target can Blues make it? We have eight more games, three of which are at home and five are against sides mid table or lower. We probably need to win four games, two at home, two away. I believe our next three games are crucial and give us a good chance to get ahead of the chasing pack who will only be playing twice during the same period.
So what do you think? Do we need seventy-three and if so can we get them?