So What’s the Magic Number?

It’s that time of the year when we all get our calculators out and start studying league tables and fixture lists trying to work out what we need to do to go up or stay up. With a top two finish looking very unlikely now the focus is on what we need to secure a playoff spot. I’m pretty indifferent about whether we finish 4th, 5th or 6th so I’m trying to work out how many points will be needed for a top six finish.

With seven games to go (Eight for us) there are only six points covering eight teams fighting for the remaining three spots. That is assuming Reading or West Ham don’t suffer a dramatic loss of form. None of those eight teams however could be considered to be in form as they have all dropped points in recent weeks. On Tuesday night Hull, Middlesbrough and Leicester all had disappointing results. With a lot of games between the playoff challengers to come you wouldn’t put money on any of the teams to get more than half the points available. If we allow a generous average of twelve points for each of the sides that would give finishing values of seventy-four for fourth and seventy-two to get sixth. With our good goal difference a total of seventy-three should be fine for a comfortable top sixth finish. I’ve added a poll for others to give their opinions on this target.

So if seventy-three is the target can Blues make it? We have eight more games, three of which are at home and five are against sides mid table or lower. We probably need to win four games, two at home, two away. I believe our next three games are crucial and give us a good chance to get ahead of the chasing pack who will only be playing twice during the same period.

So what do you think? Do we need seventy-three and if so can we get them?


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4 Comments on So What’s the Magic Number?

  1. As you rightly say teams around us are dropping points and blues are to !
    Hopefully i would like to see us get at least 12 points from the remaining games but with our problems in defence and if keith fahey isnt fit that could be a big ask.
    If we make the play offs it will be nothing short of a miracle and ch and the team will have achieved something we could have only dreamed about at the start of the season.
    On a different subject i agree with ch about the away kit much prefer the yellow, why is it not for sale in the club shop?

  2. Doncaster – 3
    Burnley – 1
    C.Palace – 3
    West Ham – 0
    Bristol City – 3
    Ipswich – 1
    Brighton – 0
    Reading – 1

    Slightly Pessimistic in places but 12 points; better results may be possible v Brighton, Burnley, Reading & West Ham – but never say never.
    We need to go into every game looking to win. 24 points available – we have to go for broke

    Reading still have to play Southampton, West Ham, Brighton & Us away this year – 4 massive games; as well as playing Leeds (still a chance at play offs); n.forrest (need to survive); c.palace (might be in for play offs – been very good in spells this year)

    West Ham – Have Reading, Birmingham, Brighton & Hull to visit them (especially with their home form this year); and have Leicster away; Bristol City & Barnsley.

    Southampton – have the easiest run – which includes Blackpool, Palace, Peterborough & Middlesborough (away); local rivals Pompy @ Home, amongst Reading & Coventry.

    So with 7 to go the top 2 doesn’t look so cut and dry to me – just get behind the blue who need to battle for every point they can and hopefully we can put up a promotion effort – we just need a few back from injury imo

  3. We should all know as Blues fans, you just cannot predict anything with them. If we go on the form, its very poor and on that we would not make the play offs. There has to be a big turnaround in form if we are to contest the play offs.

  4. Too true you never know with Blues. Our defence is the key, if we can get Murphy and Spector back fit for the run in and no one else gets injured, we are as good as any in the top 8.

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